This week's make up article is about the future of work and the changes that will be brought on by machine automation and computerization.
Here's a video about it by Anthony Goldbloom for TED. If you're not up for watching the video, there is a digest/summary below the video.
Famed economist John Maynard Keynes predicted in 1933 that we will experience widespread technological unemployment "due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour." In the subsequent decades, machines have substituted a number of jobs, including bookkeepers, cashiers and telephone operators - either eliminating the occupations outright or greatly simplifying these jobs, making them suitable for unskilled workers.
In the advanced economies where these changes are particularly intense, a number of scholars have pointed to computer-controlled equipment as a possible explanation for recent growths in these economies without the usually expected job growth. Companies are getting more efficient and profitable by automating with machines and eliminating jobs.
Certain jobs are more susceptible to computerization than others - occupations that mainly consist of tasks following well-defined procedures - can now easily be performed by sophisticated algorithms. On-going decline in manufacturing employment and disappearance of other routine jobs are cited as the cause of current rates of low employment by multiple scholars. The shift that we're seeing in the labor market, from middle-income manufacturing to low-income service occupations, is also explained through these changes. Service industry is less susceptible to computerization because they require a higher degree of flexibility and adaptability due to every situation being different.
It would logically follow then, that certain occupations are more resistant to machine automation than others.
This resistance involves 3 main characteristics that computers and machines have difficulty functionally replacing. These are:
- Perception and manipulation - jobs that involve assessment and judgement of new situations and doing fine manipulation accordingly, are difficult for robots to replace. Complex perception tasks, such as identifying objects and their properties in a cluttered field of view, are difficult tasks for computers to perform. Furthermore, handling of irregular objects, like human tissue, water balloons, etc - are accordingly difficult for robots to master, as they can not handle the complex perception required to make manipulation decisions. While robots are perfectly fine moving square packages around in a warehouse, they struggle in changing and "unstructured" environments like the home. Furthermore, we have yet to invent anything approaching the tactile acuity and flexibility of the human hand. Chefs and plumbers are more secure in the regard.
- Creative Intelligence - creativity, in the most general sense, involves coming up with novel approaches or adapting existing approaches to a new or changing situation. To assess a new situation and come up with something new, a rich database of knowledge and experience comparable to that of humans is required, and the ability to judge which pieces of knowledge and experience are most applicable in this new situation. Computers do poorly at this. Creative endeavors include the arts, academic research and even surgery - where variations in human anatomy, pathology and underlying medical conditions require the surgeon to modify the surgical approach appropriately for every surgery.
- Social Intelligence - real time perception of human emotions is also difficult for computers to replicate. There is a famous test, called the Turing Test, which involves a machine attempting to convince a human judge that it is human. No machine has ever passed (as of now) even the most basic form of this test, where the computer interacts with a human judge through text, eliminating the requirements of replicating body language, vocal tone, facial expression and contextual sensitivity. People involved in negotiation or persuasion are relatively safe from machine replacement for now.
Another popularly considered factor for lowering employment rates is the off-shoring of jobs, especially information-based tasks, to foreign work forces. These are:
1. jobs that must be perfomed at a specific work location.
2. jobs that require face-to-face communication.
However, the impact of automation will be far greater than offshoring, as certain jobs just can not be off-shored in this way. Even off-shored jobs will be lost when they are eventually automated.
This brings us to the topic of this week's make-up article: which jobs are more or less susceptible to computerization? How technological progress will affect labor markets in the 21st century remains to be seen. Historical examples of technological progress - the industrial revolution, the agricultural revolution - always had a net positive effect on the number of employment opportunities - they just added more stuff to do. Computerization may be the opposite, replacing the need for human employment.
If these coming changes will significantly impact the employment and career landscape, it follows that the education of children who will enter the workforce in 15~20 years must also change accordingly. If one of the purposes of K-12 education is, in addition to intellectual enrichment, to prepare children to be functional and contributing members of society, then preparation for employment as the job market stands to change should be a part of that consideration. Maybe it's time to rethink the wisdom of passing out iPads and chromebooks and being satisfied that we've done enough.
In case you were wondering where your occupation stands, here's an exhaustive list of 702 jobs, ordered by rank from least susceptible (#1) to machine replacement to the most. (#702)
Probability of replacement is listed next to rank. 0 would mean 0%, 1 would mean 100%. We should keep in mind that this is a list of occupations as they stand in 2015. For example, Travel Agents (#168) already have been heavily encroached upon by internet booking services for flights, hotels and trips. The Travel Agents that remain offer added value that machines and algorithms have not been able to replace, but the nature of the occupation has already shifted from a largely clerical one to an advisory one requiring social intelligence & creativity.
Source: https://80000hours.org/2015/02/which-careers-will-be-automated/
Rank | Probability | Occupation |
1 | 0.0028 | Recreational Therapists |
2 | 0.003 | First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers |
3 | 0.003 | Emergency Management Directors |
4 | 0.0031 | Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers |
5 | 0.0033 | Audiologists |
6 | 0.0035 | Occupational Therapists |
7 | 0.0035 | Orthotists and Prosthetists |
8 | 0.0035 | Healthcare Social Workers |
9 | 0.0036 | Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons |
10 | 0.0036 | First-Line Supervisors of Fire Fighting and Prevention Workers |
11 | 0.0039 | Dietitians and Nutritionists |
12 | 0.0039 | Lodging Managers |
13 | 0.004 | Choreographers |
14 | 0.0041 | Sales Engineers |
15 | 0.0042 | Physicians and Surgeons |
16 | 0.0042 | Instructional Coordinators |
17 | 0.0043 | Psychologists, All Other |
18 | 0.0044 | First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives |
19 | 0.0044 | Dentists, General |
20 | 0.0044 | Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education |
21 | 0.0045 | Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists |
22 | 0.0046 | Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School |
23 | 0.0046 | Podiatrists |
24 | 0.0047 | Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists |
25 | 0.0048 | Mental Health Counselors |
26 | 0.0049 | Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers |
27 | 0.0055 | Set and Exhibit Designers |
28 | 0.0055 | Human Resources Managers |
29 | 0.0061 | Recreation Workers |
30 | 0.0063 | Training and Development Managers |
31 | 0.0064 | Speech-Language Pathologists |
32 | 0.0065 | Computer Systems Analysts |
33 | 0.0067 | Social and Community Service Managers |
34 | 0.0068 | Curators |
35 | 0.0071 | Athletic Trainers |
36 | 0.0073 | Medical and Health Services Managers |
37 | 0.0074 | Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education |
38 | 0.0075 | Farm and Home Management Advisors |
39 | 0.0077 | Anthropologists and Archeologists |
40 | 0.0077 | Special Education Teachers, Secondary School |
41 | 0.0078 | Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education |
42 | 0.0081 | Clergy |
43 | 0.0081 | Foresters |
44 | 0.0085 | Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors |
45 | 0.0088 | Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School |
46 | 0.009 | Registered Nurses |
47 | 0.0094 | Rehabilitation Counselors |
48 | 0.0095 | Teachers and Instructors, All Other |
49 | 0.0095 | Forensic Science Technicians |
50 | 0.01 | Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance |
51 | 0.01 | Marine Engineers and Naval Architects |
52 | 0.01 | Education Administrators, Postsecondary |
53 | 0.011 | Mechanical Engineers |
54 | 0.012 | Pharmacists |
55 | 0.012 | Logisticians |
56 | 0.012 | Microbiologists |
57 | 0.012 | Industrial-Organizational Psychologists |
58 | 0.013 | Coaches and Scouts |
59 | 0.013 | Sales Managers |
60 | 0.014 | Hydrologists |
61 | 0.014 | Marketing Managers |
62 | 0.014 | Marriage and Family Therapists |
63 | 0.014 | Engineers, All Other |
64 | 0.014 | Training and Development Specialists |
65 | 0.014 | First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers |
66 | 0.015 | Biological Scientists, All Other |
67 | 0.015 | Public Relations and Fundraising Managers |
68 | 0.015 | Multimedia Artists and Animators |
69 | 0.015 | Computer and Information Research Scientists |
70 | 0.015 | Chief Executives |
71 | 0.015 | Education Administrators, Preschool and Childcare Center/Program |
72 | 0.015 | Music Directors and Composers |
73 | 0.016 | First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers |
74 | 0.016 | Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents |
75 | 0.016 | Conservation Scientists |
76 | 0.016 | Special Education Teachers, Middle School |
77 | 0.017 | Chemical Engineers |
78 | 0.017 | Architectural and Engineering Managers |
79 | 0.017 | Aerospace Engineers |
80 | 0.018 | Natural Sciences Managers |
81 | 0.018 | Environmental Engineers |
82 | 0.018 | Architects, Except Landscape and Naval |
83 | 0.018 | Physical Therapist Assistants |
84 | 0.019 | Civil Engineers |
85 | 0.02 | Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners, All Other |
86 | 0.021 | Soil and Plant Scientists |
87 | 0.021 | Materials Scientists |
88 | 0.021 | Materials Engineers |
89 | 0.021 | Fashion Designers |
90 | 0.021 | Physical Therapists |
91 | 0.021 | Photographers |
92 | 0.022 | Producers and Directors |
93 | 0.022 | Interior Designers |
94 | 0.023 | Orthodontists |
95 | 0.023 | Art Directors |
96 | 0.025 | First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers |
97 | 0.025 | Directors, Religious Activities and Education |
98 | 0.025 | Electronics Engineers, Except Computer |
99 | 0.027 | Biochemists and Biophysicists |
100 | 0.027 | Chiropractors |
101 | 0.028 | Occupational Therapy Assistants |
102 | 0.028 | Child, Family, and School Social Workers |
103 | 0.028 | Health and Safety Engineers, Except Mining Safety Engineers and Inspectors |
104 | 0.029 | Industrial Engineers |
105 | 0.029 | First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators |
106 | 0.029 | Veterinary Technologists and Technicians |
107 | 0.03 | Industrial Production Managers |
108 | 0.03 | Industrial Engineering Technicians |
109 | 0.03 | Network and Computer Systems Administrators |
110 | 0.03 | Database Administrators |
111 | 0.03 | Purchasing Managers |
112 | 0.032 | Postsecondary Teachers |
113 | 0.033 | Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including Health |
114 | 0.033 | Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors |
115 | 0.035 | Lawyers |
116 | 0.035 | Craft Artists |
117 | 0.035 | Operations Research Analysts |
118 | 0.035 | Computer and Information Systems Managers |
119 | 0.037 | Commercial and Industrial Designers |
120 | 0.037 | Biomedical Engineers |
121 | 0.037 | Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners |
122 | 0.038 | Veterinarians |
123 | 0.038 | Writers and Authors |
124 | 0.039 | Advertising and Promotions Managers |
125 | 0.039 | Political Scientists |
126 | 0.04 | Credit Counselors |
127 | 0.04 | Social Scientists and Related Workers, All Other |
128 | 0.041 | Astronomers |
129 | 0.041 | Ship Engineers |
130 | 0.042 | Software Developers, Applications |
131 | 0.042 | Fine Artists, Including Painters, Sculptors, and Illustrators |
132 | 0.043 | Psychiatric Technicians |
133 | 0.045 | Landscape Architects |
134 | 0.045 | Health Educators |
135 | 0.047 | Mathematicians |
136 | 0.047 | Floral Designers |
137 | 0.047 | Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers |
138 | 0.048 | Forest Fire Inspectors and Prevention Specialists |
139 | 0.049 | Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics |
140 | 0.055 | Editors |
141 | 0.055 | Prosthodontists |
142 | 0.055 | Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Workers, All Other |
143 | 0.057 | Travel Guides |
144 | 0.058 | Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses |
145 | 0.059 | Sociologists |
146 | 0.06 | Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators |
147 | 0.061 | Animal Scientists |
148 | 0.064 | Residential Advisors |
149 | 0.066 | Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors |
150 | 0.066 | Respiratory Therapists |
151 | 0.067 | Broadcast News Analysts |
152 | 0.069 | Financial Managers |
153 | 0.07 | Nuclear Engineers |
154 | 0.071 | Construction Managers |
155 | 0.074 | Musicians and Singers |
156 | 0.075 | First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers |
157 | 0.076 | First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers |
158 | 0.077 | Food Scientists and Technologists |
159 | 0.08 | Compliance Officers |
160 | 0.08 | Fish and Game Wardens |
161 | 0.082 | Graphic Designers |
162 | 0.083 | Food Service Managers |
163 | 0.084 | Childcare Workers |
164 | 0.085 | Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors |
165 | 0.091 | Gaming Managers |
166 | 0.097 | Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers |
167 | 0.098 | Police and Sheriff’s Patrol Officers |
168 | 0.099 | Travel Agents |
169 | 0.1 | Chefs and Head Cooks |
170 | 0.1 | Animal Trainers |
171 | 0.1 | Radio and Television Announcers |
172 | 0.1 | Electrical Engineers |
173 | 0.1 | Chemists |
174 | 0.1 | Respiratory Therapy Technicians |
175 | 0.1 | Physicists |
176 | 0.11 | Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists |
177 | 0.11 | Reporters and Correspondents |
178 | 0.11 | Air Traffic Controllers |
179 | 0.13 | Dancers |
180 | 0.13 | Nuclear Medicine Technologists |
181 | 0.13 | Software Developers, Systems Software |
182 | 0.13 | Management Analysts |
183 | 0.13 | Dietetic Technicians |
184 | 0.13 | Urban and Regional Planners |
185 | 0.13 | Social and Human Service Assistants |
186 | 0.13 | Self-Enrichment Education Teachers |
187 | 0.13 | Sound Engineering Technicians |
188 | 0.14 | Optometrists |
189 | 0.14 | Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety Engineers |
190 | 0.14 | Physician Assistants |
191 | 0.15 | Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education |
192 | 0.15 | Electricians |
193 | 0.16 | Petroleum Engineers |
194 | 0.16 | Desktop Publishers |
195 | 0.16 | General and Operations Managers |
196 | 0.17 | Occupational Health and Safety Specialists |
197 | 0.17 | Firefighters |
198 | 0.17 | Financial Examiners |
199 | 0.17 | First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers |
200 | 0.17 | Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education |
201 | 0.18 | Public Relations Specialists |
202 | 0.18 | Commercial Divers |
203 | 0.18 | Manufactured Building and Mobile Home Installers |
204 | 0.18 | Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers |
205 | 0.19 | Adult Basic and Secondary Education and Literacy Teachers and Instructors |
206 | 0.2 | Epidemiologists |
207 | 0.2 | Funeral Service Managers, Directors, Morticians, and Undertakers |
208 | 0.21 | Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architects |
209 | 0.21 | Actuaries |
210 | 0.21 | Animal Control Workers |
211 | 0.21 | Concierges |
212 | 0.22 | Computer Occupations, All Other |
213 | 0.22 | Statisticians |
214 | 0.22 | Computer Hardware Engineers |
215 | 0.23 | Survey Researchers |
216 | 0.23 | Business Operations Specialists, All Other |
217 | 0.23 | Financial Analysts |
218 | 0.23 | Radiologic Technologists and Technicians |
219 | 0.23 | Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians |
220 | 0.24 | Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes |
221 | 0.24 | Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other |
222 | 0.25 | Geographers |
223 | 0.25 | Occupational Health and Safety Technicians |
224 | 0.25 | Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists |
225 | 0.25 | Environmental Engineering Technicians |
226 | 0.25 | Managers, All Other |
227 | 0.25 | Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical Technicians |
228 | 0.25 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products |
229 | 0.26 | Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School |
230 | 0.27 | Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels |
231 | 0.27 | Occupational Therapy Aides |
232 | 0.27 | Medical Equipment Repairers |
233 | 0.28 | First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers |
234 | 0.28 | Athletes and Sports Competitors |
235 | 0.28 | Gaming Supervisors |
236 | 0.29 | Skincare Specialists |
237 | 0.29 | Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products |
238 | 0.3 | Biological Technicians |
239 | 0.3 | Medical Assistants |
240 | 0.3 | Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists |
241 | 0.3 | Cooks, Private Household |
242 | 0.31 | Human Resources, Training, and Labor Relations Specialists, All Other |
243 | 0.31 | Private Detectives and Investigators |
244 | 0.31 | Film and Video Editors |
245 | 0.33 | Financial Specialists, All Other |
246 | 0.34 | Detectives and Criminal Investigators |
247 | 0.34 | Surgical Technologists |
248 | 0.34 | Radiation Therapists |
249 | 0.35 | Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters |
250 | 0.35 | Flight Attendants |
251 | 0.35 | Diagnostic Medical Sonographers |
252 | 0.36 | Bailiffs |
253 | 0.36 | Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal and Plastic |
254 | 0.36 | Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers |
255 | 0.37 | Furnace, Kiln, Oven, Drier, and Kettle Operators and Tenders |
256 | 0.37 | Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment |
257 | 0.37 | Funeral Attendants |
258 | 0.37 | Helpers–Extraction Workers |
259 | 0.37 | Actors |
260 | 0.37 | Mine Shuttle Car Operators |
261 | 0.38 | layElectrical and Electronics Repairers, Powerhouse, Substation, and Re- |
262 | 0.38 | Surveyors |
263 | 0.38 | Mechanical Engineering Technicians |
264 | 0.38 | Packers and Packagers, Hand |
265 | 0.38 | Interpreters and Translators |
266 | 0.39 | Home Health Aides |
267 | 0.39 | Upholsterers |
268 | 0.39 | Elevator Installers and Repairers |
269 | 0.39 | Gaming Cage Workers |
270 | 0.39 | Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists |
271 | 0.4 | Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates |
272 | 0.4 | Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines |
273 | 0.4 | Health Technologists and Technicians, All Other |
274 | 0.41 | Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products |
275 | 0.41 | Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters |
276 | 0.41 | Judicial Law Clerks |
277 | 0.41 | Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Commercial and Industrial Equipment |
278 | 0.42 | Forest and Conservation Technicians |
279 | 0.42 | First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand |
280 | 0.43 | Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room Attendants |
281 | 0.43 | Physical Scientists, All Other |
282 | 0.43 | Economists |
283 | 0.44 | Historians |
284 | 0.45 | Medical Appliance Technicians |
285 | 0.46 | Court, Municipal, and License Clerks |
286 | 0.47 | Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists |
287 | 0.47 | Psychiatric Aides |
288 | 0.47 | Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians |
289 | 0.48 | Fire Inspectors and Investigators |
290 | 0.48 | Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technicians |
291 | 0.48 | Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers |
292 | 0.48 | Explosives Workers, Ordnance Handling Experts, and Blasters |
293 | 0.48 | Computer Programmers |
294 | 0.49 | Crossing Guards |
295 | 0.49 | Agricultural Engineers |
296 | 0.49 | Roof Bolters, Mining |
297 | 0.49 | Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers |
298 | 0.49 | Police, Fire, and Ambulance Dispatchers |
299 | 0.5 | Loading Machine Operators, Underground Mining |
300 | 0.5 | Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other |
301 | 0.5 | Court Reporters |
302 | 0.51 | Demonstrators and Product Promoters |
303 | 0.51 | Dental Assistants |
304 | 0.52 | Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers |
305 | 0.52 | Architectural and Civil Drafters |
306 | 0.53 | Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas |
307 | 0.53 | Hazardous Materials Removal Workers |
308 | 0.54 | Embalmers |
309 | 0.54 | Continuous Mining Machine Operators |
310 | 0.54 | Slot Supervisors |
311 | 0.54 | Massage Therapists |
312 | 0.54 | Advertising Sales Agents |
313 | 0.55 | Automotive Glass Installers and Repairers |
314 | 0.55 | Commercial Pilots |
315 | 0.55 | Customer Service Representatives |
316 | 0.55 | Audio and Video Equipment Technicians |
317 | 0.56 | Teacher Assistants |
318 | 0.57 | First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers |
319 | 0.57 | Chemical Technicians |
320 | 0.57 | Helpers–Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters |
321 | 0.57 | Cost Estimators |
322 | 0.57 | Transit and Railroad Police |
323 | 0.57 | First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers |
324 | 0.58 | Personal Financial Advisors |
325 | 0.59 | Millwrights |
326 | 0.59 | Museum Technicians and Conservators |
327 | 0.59 | Mine Cutting and Channeling Machine Operators |
328 | 0.59 | Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers |
329 | 0.59 | Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians |
330 | 0.59 | Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics |
331 | 0.6 | Correctional Officers and Jailers |
332 | 0.6 | Camera Operators, Television, Video, and Motion Picture |
333 | 0.6 | Slaughterers and Meat Packers |
334 | 0.61 | Electronic Equipment Installers and Repairers, Motor Vehicles |
335 | 0.61 | Physical Therapist Aides |
336 | 0.61 | Costume Attendants |
337 | 0.61 | Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists |
338 | 0.61 | Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks |
339 | 0.61 | Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators |
340 | 0.61 | Life, Physical, and Social Science Technicians, All Other |
341 | 0.61 | Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders |
342 | 0.61 | Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
343 | 0.62 | Motorboat Operators |
344 | 0.62 | Tapers |
345 | 0.62 | Pipelayers |
346 | 0.63 | Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers |
347 | 0.63 | Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door |
348 | 0.63 | Healthcare Support Workers, All Other |
349 | 0.63 | First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers |
350 | 0.63 | Construction and Building Inspectors |
351 | 0.64 | Cutters and Trimmers, Hand |
352 | 0.64 | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General |
353 | 0.64 | Administrative Law Judges, Adjudicators, and Hearing Officers |
354 | 0.64 | Stock Clerks and Order Fillers |
355 | 0.64 | Power Distributors and Dispatchers |
356 | 0.64 | Insulation Workers, Mechanical |
357 | 0.65 | Social Science Research Assistants |
358 | 0.65 | Machinists |
359 | 0.65 | Computer Support Specialists |
360 | 0.65 | Librarians |
361 | 0.65 | Electronic Home Entertainment Equipment Installers and Repairers |
362 | 0.65 | Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers |
363 | 0.65 | Hoist and Winch Operators |
364 | 0.66 | Pest Control Workers |
365 | 0.66 | Helpers–Production Workers |
366 | 0.66 | Statistical Assistants |
367 | 0.66 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners |
368 | 0.66 | Motorboat Mechanics and Service Technicians |
369 | 0.67 | Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
370 | 0.67 | Foundry Mold and Coremakers |
371 | 0.67 | Atmospheric and Space Scientists |
372 | 0.67 | Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity |
373 | 0.67 | Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers |
374 | 0.67 | Industrial Machinery Mechanics |
375 | 0.68 | Postal Service Mail Carriers |
376 | 0.68 | Roustabouts, Oil and Gas |
377 | 0.68 | Boilermakers |
378 | 0.68 | Mechanical Drafters |
379 | 0.68 | Dental Hygienists |
380 | 0.69 | Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers |
381 | 0.69 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners |
382 | 0.69 | Painters, Transportation Equipment |
383 | 0.7 | Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs |
384 | 0.7 | Tire Repairers and Changers |
385 | 0.7 | Food Batchmakers |
386 | 0.7 | Avionics Technicians |
387 | 0.71 | Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians |
388 | 0.71 | Airfield Operations Specialists |
389 | 0.71 | Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers |
390 | 0.71 | Construction and Related Workers, All Other |
391 | 0.71 | Opticians, Dispensing |
392 | 0.71 | Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers |
393 | 0.72 | Amusement and Recreation Attendants |
394 | 0.72 | Pharmacy Aides |
395 | 0.72 | Helpers–Roofers |
396 | 0.72 | Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders |
397 | 0.72 | Home Appliance Repairers |
398 | 0.72 | Carpenters |
399 | 0.72 | Public Address System and Other Announcers |
400 | 0.73 | Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
401 | 0.73 | Administrative Services Managers |
402 | 0.73 | Glaziers |
403 | 0.73 | Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers |
404 | 0.73 | Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists |
405 | 0.74 | Computer, Automated Teller, and Office Machine Repairers |
406 | 0.74 | Personal Care Aides |
407 | 0.74 | Broadcast Technicians |
408 | 0.74 | Helpers–Electricians |
409 | 0.75 | Postmasters and Mail Superintendents |
410 | 0.75 | Tile and Marble Setters |
411 | 0.75 | Painters, Construction and Maintenance |
412 | 0.75 | Transportation Attendants, Except Flight Attendants |
413 | 0.75 | Civil Engineering Technicians |
414 | 0.75 | Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians |
415 | 0.76 | Archivists |
416 | 0.76 | Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders |
417 | 0.76 | Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers |
418 | 0.76 | Fallers |
419 | 0.77 | Environmental Science and Protection Technicians, Including Health |
420 | 0.77 | Locksmiths and Safe Repairers |
421 | 0.77 | Tree Trimmers and Pruners |
422 | 0.77 | Bartenders |
423 | 0.77 | Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and Farm Products |
424 | 0.77 | Dishwashers |
425 | 0.77 | Hunters and Trappers |
426 | 0.78 | Medical Equipment Preparers |
427 | 0.78 | Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
428 | 0.78 | Computer Operators |
429 | 0.78 | Gas Plant Operators |
430 | 0.79 | Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators |
431 | 0.79 | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers |
432 | 0.79 | Shampooers |
433 | 0.79 | Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers |
434 | 0.79 | Helpers–Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers |
435 | 0.79 | Motorcycle Mechanics |
436 | 0.79 | Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers |
437 | 0.79 | Logging Equipment Operators |
438 | 0.79 | Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles |
439 | 0.8 | Barbers |
440 | 0.8 | Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas |
441 | 0.81 | Cooks, Fast Food |
442 | 0.81 | Word Processors and Typists |
443 | 0.81 | Electrical and Electronics Drafters |
444 | 0.81 | Electro-Mechanical Technicians |
445 | 0.81 | Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders |
446 | 0.81 | Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers |
447 | 0.81 | Medical Secretaries |
448 | 0.81 | Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials |
449 | 0.82 | Engine and Other Machine Assemblers |
450 | 0.82 | Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers |
451 | 0.82 | Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons |
452 | 0.82 | Nonfarm Animal Caretakers |
453 | 0.82 | Sheet Metal Workers |
454 | 0.82 | Pile-Driver Operators |
455 | 0.82 | Brickmasons and Blockmasons |
456 | 0.83 | Fishers and Related Fishing Workers |
457 | 0.83 | Structural Iron and Steel Workers |
458 | 0.83 | Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators |
459 | 0.83 | Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters |
460 | 0.83 | Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria |
461 | 0.83 | Sailors and Marine Oilers |
462 | 0.83 | Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
463 | 0.83 | Helpers–Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters |
464 | 0.83 | Segmental Pavers |
465 | 0.83 | Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall |
466 | 0.83 | Printing Press Operators |
467 | 0.83 | Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants |
468 | 0.83 | Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners |
469 | 0.83 | Baggage Porters and Bellhops |
470 | 0.83 | Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers |
471 | 0.83 | Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
472 | 0.83 | Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators |
473 | 0.84 | Tool and Die Makers |
474 | 0.84 | Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technicians |
475 | 0.84 | Plasterers and Stucco Masons |
476 | 0.84 | Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic |
477 | 0.84 | Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
478 | 0.84 | Security Guards |
479 | 0.84 | Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom Sewers |
480 | 0.84 | Wellhead Pumpers |
481 | 0.84 | Proofreaders and Copy Markers |
482 | 0.84 | Parking Enforcement Workers |
483 | 0.85 | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand |
484 | 0.85 | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products |
485 | 0.85 | Meter Readers, Utilities |
486 | 0.85 | Power Plant Operators |
487 | 0.85 | Chemical Plant and System Operators |
488 | 0.85 | Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas |
489 | 0.85 | Nuclear Technicians |
490 | 0.86 | Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants |
491 | 0.86 | Plant and System Operators, All Other |
492 | 0.86 | Food Servers, Nonrestaurant |
493 | 0.86 | Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Wood |
494 | 0.86 | Subway and Streetcar Operators |
495 | 0.86 | Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers |
496 | 0.86 | Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
497 | 0.86 | Real Estate Sales Agents |
498 | 0.86 | Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic |
499 | 0.86 | Maintenance Workers, Machinery |
500 | 0.86 | Correspondence Clerks |
501 | 0.87 | Miscellaneous Agricultural Workers |
502 | 0.87 | Forest and Conservation Workers |
503 | 0.87 | Pourers and Casters, Metal |
504 | 0.87 | Carpet Installers |
505 | 0.87 | Paperhangers |
506 | 0.87 | Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products |
507 | 0.87 | Furniture Finishers |
508 | 0.87 | Food Preparation Workers |
509 | 0.87 | Floor Sanders and Finishers |
510 | 0.87 | Parking Lot Attendants |
511 | 0.87 | Highway Maintenance Workers |
512 | 0.88 | Construction Laborers |
513 | 0.88 | Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks |
514 | 0.88 | Semiconductor Processors |
515 | 0.88 | Cartographers and Photogrammetrists |
516 | 0.88 | Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders |
517 | 0.88 | Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters |
518 | 0.88 | Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers |
519 | 0.88 | Terrazzo Workers and Finishers |
520 | 0.88 | Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners |
521 | 0.88 | Rail Car Repairers |
522 | 0.89 | Bakers |
523 | 0.89 | Medical Transcriptionists |
524 | 0.89 | Stonemasons |
525 | 0.89 | Bus Drivers, School or Special Client |
526 | 0.89 | Technical Writers |
527 | 0.89 | Riggers |
528 | 0.89 | Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators |
529 | 0.89 | Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators |
530 | 0.89 | Sewing Machine Operators |
531 | 0.89 | Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs |
532 | 0.9 | Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping |
533 | 0.9 | Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists |
534 | 0.9 | Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers |
535 | 0.9 | Roofers |
536 | 0.9 | Crane and Tower Operators |
537 | 0.9 | Traffic Technicians |
538 | 0.9 | Transportation Inspectors |
539 | 0.9 | Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic |
540 | 0.9 | Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic |
541 | 0.9 | Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate |
542 | 0.9 | Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers |
543 | 0.9 | Signal and Track Switch Repairers |
544 | 0.91 | Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners |
545 | 0.91 | Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners |
546 | 0.91 | Tour Guides and Escorts |
547 | 0.91 | Mechanical Door Repairers |
548 | 0.91 | Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders |
549 | 0.91 | Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators |
550 | 0.91 | Medical Records and Health Information Technicians |
551 | 0.91 | Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
552 | 0.91 | ticMultiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plas- |
553 | 0.91 | Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers |
554 | 0.91 | Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment |
555 | 0.91 | Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers |
556 | 0.91 | Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
557 | 0.91 | Geological and Petroleum Technicians |
558 | 0.91 | Automotive Body and Related Repairers |
559 | 0.91 | Patternmakers, Wood |
560 | 0.91 | Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
561 | 0.92 | Office Machine Operators, Except Computer |
562 | 0.92 | Pharmacy Technicians |
563 | 0.92 | Loan Interviewers and Clerks |
564 | 0.92 | Dredge Operators |
565 | 0.92 | Insurance Sales Agents |
566 | 0.92 | Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters |
567 | 0.92 | Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers |
568 | 0.92 | Fence Erectors |
569 | 0.92 | Plating and Coating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
570 | 0.92 | Retail Salespersons |
571 | 0.92 | Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food |
572 | 0.92 | Production Workers, All Other |
573 | 0.92 | Helpers–Carpenters |
574 | 0.93 | Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders |
575 | 0.93 | Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators |
576 | 0.93 | Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, and Mining |
577 | 0.93 | Conveyor Operators and Tenders |
578 | 0.93 | Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics |
579 | 0.93 | Locomotive Firers |
580 | 0.93 | Machine Feeders and Offbearers |
581 | 0.93 | Model Makers, Metal and Plastic |
582 | 0.93 | Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs |
583 | 0.93 | Butchers and Meat Cutters |
584 | 0.93 | Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders |
585 | 0.93 | Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors |
586 | 0.93 | Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents |
587 | 0.93 | Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
588 | 0.93 | Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators |
589 | 0.94 | Accountants and Auditors |
590 | 0.94 | Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
591 | 0.94 | Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service |
592 | 0.94 | Waiters and Waitresses |
593 | 0.94 | Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers |
594 | 0.94 | Budget Analysts |
595 | 0.94 | Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers |
596 | 0.94 | Bicycle Repairers |
597 | 0.94 | Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers |
598 | 0.94 | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers |
599 | 0.94 | Couriers and Messengers |
600 | 0.94 | Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan |
601 | 0.94 | Cooks, Short Order |
602 | 0.94 | Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators |
603 | 0.94 | Helpers–Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons |
604 | 0.94 | Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks |
605 | 0.94 | Tire Builders |
606 | 0.94 | Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers |
607 | 0.94 | First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers |
608 | 0.94 | Agricultural Inspectors |
609 | 0.94 | Paralegals and Legal Assistants |
610 | 0.95 | Manicurists and Pedicurists |
611 | 0.95 | Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers, Recordkeeping |
612 | 0.95 | Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
613 | 0.95 | Bill and Account Collectors |
614 | 0.95 | Nuclear Power Reactor Operators |
615 | 0.95 | Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators |
616 | 0.95 | Library Assistants, Clerical |
617 | 0.95 | Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators |
618 | 0.95 | Print Binding and Finishing Workers |
619 | 0.95 | Animal Breeders |
620 | 0.95 | Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
621 | 0.95 | Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers |
622 | 0.95 | Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders |
623 | 0.95 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers |
624 | 0.95 | Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
625 | 0.95 | Postal Service Clerks |
626 | 0.95 | Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers |
627 | 0.96 | Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance |
628 | 0.96 | Receptionists and Information Clerks |
629 | 0.96 | Office Clerks, General |
630 | 0.96 | Compensation and Benefits Managers |
631 | 0.96 | Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service |
632 | 0.96 | Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop |
633 | 0.96 | Rock Splitters, Quarry |
634 | 0.96 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive |
635 | 0.96 | Surveying and Mapping Technicians |
636 | 0.96 | Model Makers, Wood |
637 | 0.96 | Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
638 | 0.96 | Locomotive Engineers |
639 | 0.96 | Gaming Dealers |
640 | 0.96 | Fabric Menders, Except Garment |
641 | 0.96 | Cooks, Restaurant |
642 | 0.96 | Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers |
643 | 0.96 | Billing and Posting Clerks |
644 | 0.97 | Bridge and Lock Tenders |
645 | 0.97 | Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing |
646 | 0.97 | Team Assemblers |
647 | 0.97 | Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders |
648 | 0.97 | Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers |
649 | 0.97 | Farm Labor Contractors |
650 | 0.97 | Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders |
651 | 0.97 | Dental Laboratory Technicians |
652 | 0.97 | Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders |
653 | 0.97 | Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand |
654 | 0.97 | Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation |
655 | 0.97 | Log Graders and Scalers |
656 | 0.97 | Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians |
657 | 0.97 | Cashiers |
658 | 0.97 | Camera and Photographic Equipment Repairers |
659 | 0.97 | Motion Picture Projectionists |
660 | 0.97 | Prepress Technicians and Workers |
661 | 0.97 | Counter and Rental Clerks |
662 | 0.97 | File Clerks |
663 | 0.97 | Real Estate Brokers |
664 | 0.97 | Telephone Operators |
665 | 0.97 | Agricultural and Food Science Technicians |
666 | 0.97 | Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks |
667 | 0.97 | Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks |
668 | 0.97 | Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop |
669 | 0.98 | Models |
670 | 0.98 | Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers |
671 | 0.98 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks |
672 | 0.98 | Legal Secretaries |
673 | 0.98 | Radio Operators |
674 | 0.98 | Driver/Sales Workers |
675 | 0.98 | Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators |
676 | 0.98 | Parts Salespersons |
677 | 0.98 | Credit Analysts |
678 | 0.98 | Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic |
679 | 0.98 | Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks |
680 | 0.98 | Procurement Clerks |
681 | 0.98 | Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders |
682 | 0.98 | Etchers and Engravers |
683 | 0.98 | Tellers |
684 | 0.98 | Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials |
685 | 0.98 | Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage |
686 | 0.98 | Loan Officers |
687 | 0.98 | Order Clerks |
688 | 0.98 | Brokerage Clerks |
689 | 0.98 | Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks |
690 | 0.98 | Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters |
691 | 0.99 | Data Entry Keyers |
692 | 0.99 | Library Technicians |
693 | 0.99 | New Accounts Clerks |
694 | 0.99 | Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators |
695 | 0.99 | Tax Preparers |
696 | 0.99 | Cargo and Freight Agents |
697 | 0.99 | Watch Repairers |
698 | 0.99 | Insurance Underwriters |
699 | 0.99 | Mathematical Technicians |
700 | 0.99 | Sewers, Hand |
701 | 0.99 | Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers |
702 | 0.99 | Telemarketers |
Sources
- Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?. Sept 17, 2013. Archived by Archive.org↩
- The Occupational Information Network, a free online database funded by the US Department of Labour / Employment and Training Administration.↩
- https://80000hours.org/2015/02/which-careers-will-be-automated/